Finally! Someone With a Calculator Wants to Run Illinois
Ted Dabrowski's 2026 gubernatorial bid might not win; but it will force the conversation Illinois actually needs
For a state drowning in pension debt and hemorrhaging residents, Illinois has gotten remarkably comfortable with political races that feel like reruns. Democrats have held the governor’s mansion since 2019, and Republicans have spent those years churning through candidates who mistake volume for strategy and outrage for a plan.
Enter Ted Dabrowski: not a politician, not a dynasty heir, not someone you’ve seen on cable news. He’s the guy who’s been doing Illinois’ homework for years while everyone else was guessing at the test.
The Policy Nerd Goes Political
Dabrowski spent years as president of Wirepoints, the research outfit that publishes the numbers Illinois politicians would rather you not read. Before that, he was at the Illinois Policy Institute. Before that, he spent nearly two decades in international banking. Translation: he knows how to read a balance sheet, and Illinois’ balance sheet reads like a horror novel.
In September 2025, he announced he’s running for governor in the 2026 Republican primary. Not because he loves rallies or photo ops, but because someone needs to talk about the actual math.
The Crowded Primary Nobody Asked For
Dabrowski isn’t getting a clear path. The 2026 GOP primary is already packed:
Darren Bailey, the 2022 nominee who proved downstate passion doesn’t translate to suburban votes
Rick Heidner, a Barrington Hills developer who made his money in video gambling
James Mendrick, the DuPage County sheriff
Joseph Severino, a North Shore congressional candidate
Meanwhile, Gov. JB Pritzker is running for a third term, armed with a family fortune and incumbency. The primary is March 17, 2026; the general is November 3.
So Dabrowski has to win over a GOP base that might prefer Bailey’s red-meat populism, then somehow convince independents and moderate Democrats that a Republican reformer isn’t just Bruce Rauner 2.0.
His Pitch: Numbers Don’t Lie
Dabrowski’s message is straightforward, even if solving the problems isn’t:
Stop the bleeding: Illinois is losing population, jobs, and taxpayers to states that don’t treat residents like ATMs.
Fix the pensions: The state keeps digging deeper into a pension hole that’s already swallowed billions. His idea? 401(k)-style plans for new public employees.
Demand education results: Illinois spends heavily on schools but gets mediocre outcomes. Why?
Rebuild trust: From crime to corruption, people don’t trust their government. That’s not a talking point — it’s a crisis.
Whether voters buy this diagnosis is TBD. But at least someone’s showing their work.
The Money Matters
Political observers are paying attention for one reason: Dabrowski raised about $1.5 million early on, including support from GOP megadonor Richard Uihlein (yes, the same Uihlein who backed Bailey in 2022).
That doesn’t guarantee victory, but it does mean he can afford ads, staff, and the introductions a first-time candidate desperately needs.
The Bruce Rauner Ghost
Anyone running as a Republican reformer in Illinois gets compared to Bruce Rauner, whose single term featured a brutal budget standoff, damaged relationships, and zero proof that a businessman-governor could negotiate with a Democratic supermajority.
Dabrowski isn’t Rauner. He’s running in a different moment — post-pandemic, post-2020 census losses, post-everything that made Illinois feel stuck. But that shadow? It’s real. And it will follow him.
Why This Race Matters Beyond Dabrowski
Here’s the civic question: Should Illinois have an actual, competitive debate about its future?
Not a Twitter spat. Not a culture war sideshow. A real conversation about taxes, debt, schools, and whether the state can stop losing 100,000 residents a year.
Many voters — Democrats, Republicans, independents — say they want:
Fact-based debates
Clear plans, not slogans
Races decided by voters, not inevitability
Dabrowski’s candidacy tests whether Illinois can sustain two-party dialogue or whether it’s locked into one-party dominance with all the real action happening in Democratic primaries.
What to Watch
Between now and March 2026, four things will determine if Dabrowski is a footnote or a factor:
Can he get known? Policy wonks don’t automatically become household names.
How does he beat Bailey? Without alienating voters he’d need in November?
Suburbs vs. downstate: Dabrowski emphasizes his Cook County roots and immigrant family story; Bailey owns downstate. Who wins that split?
Is there a general-election path? If he wins the primary, can he attract moderates and independents who want change but remember Rauner?
The Bigger Point
Illinois has been stuck in this loop for years: sky-high stakes, structural problems nobody wants to solve, and elections that feel predetermined.
Ted Dabrowski’s campaign doesn’t guarantee a different result. But a data-driven outsider stepping into the arena is a reminder that elections are still supposed to be competitions.
At minimum, his run gives Illinois voters a chance to demand what they should expect from every candidate: clear plans, honest numbers, and real answers.
If nothing else, someone finally brought a calculator to a state that’s been running on vibes and credit cards for too long.
The 2026 Illinois gubernatorial race is shaping up. Whether it becomes a real contest is up to voters — and whether they decide to pay attention before it’s too late.